Category: Thomas O’Malley

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Whom Will Democrats Nominate in 2020?


Difficult as it may be to believe, the 2020 election is right around the corner.  Candidates began announcing they were running for the 2016 election in the first few months of 2015, so expect candidates for the upcoming presidential election to announce they are running in early 2019.

The Republican primaries are likely to be uneventful.  Donald Trump remains popular among Republicans, so any NeverTrump who runs against him in the primaries won’t pose much of a threat.  The Democratic primaries are another matter.  After Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the last election, the Democratic Party has been leaderless, and a definitive frontrunner is yet to emerge.  As of right now, the four most likely candidates for the Democratic nomination in 2020 are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris.

Biden is the most popular of all the potential candidates and would pose the most serious threat to Trump.  Biden could win back the white working class for the Democrats, and the fact that he was vice president under Barack Obama would help him greatly in both the primaries and the general election, since Obama is still very popular among Democrats.  Biden was mentioned as a possible candidate in the 2016 election but announced in October 2015 that he would not run.  Perhaps he didn’t want to divide the establishment wing of the Democratic Party so Clinton would more easily gain the nomination.  With her having lost in 2016 and presumably out of the picture for 2020, maybe Biden will see himself as the logical successor to the establishment Democratic banner and run.

However, he may not receive the nomination.  Biden is a white male in a party that increasingly despises white males and wants to see more diversity in its leadership.  Biden is notorious for his tendency to put his foot in his mouth.  When running for president in 2007, he said of his future running mate, “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.  I mean, that’s a storybook, man.”  When campaigning for Obama in 2012, he told a mostly black audience that if Mitt Romney was elected, he would “put y’all back in chains.”  He also said, “You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.”  When running for president in 1987, he plagiarized a speech from British Labor politician Neil Kinnock, which among other plagiarism revelations led him to drop out of the race.  Biden also has an unfortunate habit of putting his hands on little girls, which has been caught on camera numerous times.  Should he run, Republicans would never stop broadcasting these clips to the public and reminding voters of Biden’s peculiar habits.  And Democrats might not want to nominate Biden in the age of #MeToo.

Sanders is widely popular, especially with young voters.  However, polls show that most Americans are not willing to vote for a socialist.  And he is not universally admired by Democrats.  Many Clinton-supporters blame Sanders for splitting the Democrats in the 2016 primaries.  Sanders-supporters believed (correctly as it turned out) that the primaries were rigged against him, and many were dismayed by his endorsement of Clinton, believing that it was a betrayal of his “political revolution.”  Some Sanders-supporters refused to vote for Clinton, instead voting for Trump, voting for a third-party candidate, or not voting at all.  If Sanders hadn’t run, Clinton-supporters say, Democrats would have been more united in 2016 and would have defeated Trump.  Many Democrats also criticize Sanders for focusing too much on class and not enough on race, sex, or other fashionable progressive causes.  And he is a white male, the worst thing one could possibly be in the eyes of the left. 

Warren is also popular, especially among progressive women.  However, she is unappealing and has no charisma, much like Clinton.  Her appeal and popularity are limited to Democrats, and the Democratic nominee will need independents to defeat Trump in 2020.  She may not motivate nonwhite voters, especially black voters, to come to the polls, as was the case with Clinton in 2016.  Warren is a woman, and Democrats are eager to have a female president, but she is also white, so she may not be diverse enough.  Her race may be an issue in another regard.  Warren, who is originally from Oklahoma, long claimed to have American Indian ancestry.  This was later found to be in vigorous dispute, at the very least.  A party that prides itself on diversity and opposing racism nominating a white person who falsely claimed to be nonwhite is, to use the Democrats’ own terminology, problematic. 

In my opinion, the person most likely to be the Democratic nominee in 2020 is Kamala Harris, a senator from California.  She is a progressive woman “of color” and is therefore perfect to represent the new generation of Democrats.  In contrast to Biden, Sanders, and Warren, all of whom will be in their 70s on November 3, 2020, Harris is young.  Her father is an immigrant from Jamaica, and her mother is an immigrant from India, so the media could portray her as the female Obama.  In fact, there are many similarities between Harris and Obama.  Both are half-black, both spent much of their childhood outside the country (Obama in Indonesia and Harris in Canada), and both are senators from heavily blue states.  Should Harris run, she, like Obama, will face challenges from white establishment Democrats.

Of course, Harris has flaws.  Unlike Obama, she is not very charismatic or well spoken and isn’t as well known as the other possible candidates.  Harris’s conduct during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings was frankly embarrassing, but that might be a plus for Democrats.  She blatantly misrepresented Kavanaugh’s views on birth control and dismissively referred to his pocket Constitution as “that book you carry.”

The Democratic nominee in 2020 will almost certainly be a woman.  We had our first black president, then we almost had our first female president.  Democrats felt that it was time for a woman in the White House, and they are determined to have one.  There is a very good chance that the Democratic nominee will also be nonwhite.  The party seems to be turning against white people.  For the first time, white males are a minority of Democratic nominees for the House.  There is a clear pattern of nonwhites defeating white candidates, both male and female, in Democratic primaries this year.  Stacey Abrams, a black woman, defeated Stacey Evans, a white woman, in the Democratic primary for governor of Georgia.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Hispanic woman, defeated Joe Crowley, a white man, in the Democratic primary for New York’s 14th Congressional District.  Andrew Gillum, a black man, defeated Gwen Graham, a white woman, in the Democratic primary for governor of Florida.  Ayanna Pressley, a black woman, defeated Michael Capuano, a white man, in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District.  It seems that this is the direction the Democratic party is going in, and it will continue to go in this direction during the presidential primaries. 

Thomas O’Malley can be contacted at thomasomalley861@yahoo.com.

Difficult as it may be to believe, the 2020 election is right around the corner.  Candidates began announcing they were running for the 2016 election in the first few months of 2015, so expect candidates for the upcoming presidential election to announce they are running in early 2019.

The Republican primaries are likely to be uneventful.  Donald Trump remains popular among Republicans, so any NeverTrump who runs against him in the primaries won’t pose much of a threat.  The Democratic primaries are another matter.  After Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the last election, the Democratic Party has been leaderless, and a definitive frontrunner is yet to emerge.  As of right now, the four most likely candidates for the Democratic nomination in 2020 are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris.

Biden is the most popular of all the potential candidates and would pose the most serious threat to Trump.  Biden could win back the white working class for the Democrats, and the fact that he was vice president under Barack Obama would help him greatly in both the primaries and the general election, since Obama is still very popular among Democrats.  Biden was mentioned as a possible candidate in the 2016 election but announced in October 2015 that he would not run.  Perhaps he didn’t want to divide the establishment wing of the Democratic Party so Clinton would more easily gain the nomination.  With her having lost in 2016 and presumably out of the picture for 2020, maybe Biden will see himself as the logical successor to the establishment Democratic banner and run.

However, he may not receive the nomination.  Biden is a white male in a party that increasingly despises white males and wants to see more diversity in its leadership.  Biden is notorious for his tendency to put his foot in his mouth.  When running for president in 2007, he said of his future running mate, “I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.  I mean, that’s a storybook, man.”  When campaigning for Obama in 2012, he told a mostly black audience that if Mitt Romney was elected, he would “put y’all back in chains.”  He also said, “You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.”  When running for president in 1987, he plagiarized a speech from British Labor politician Neil Kinnock, which among other plagiarism revelations led him to drop out of the race.  Biden also has an unfortunate habit of putting his hands on little girls, which has been caught on camera numerous times.  Should he run, Republicans would never stop broadcasting these clips to the public and reminding voters of Biden’s peculiar habits.  And Democrats might not want to nominate Biden in the age of #MeToo.

Sanders is widely popular, especially with young voters.  However, polls show that most Americans are not willing to vote for a socialist.  And he is not universally admired by Democrats.  Many Clinton-supporters blame Sanders for splitting the Democrats in the 2016 primaries.  Sanders-supporters believed (correctly as it turned out) that the primaries were rigged against him, and many were dismayed by his endorsement of Clinton, believing that it was a betrayal of his “political revolution.”  Some Sanders-supporters refused to vote for Clinton, instead voting for Trump, voting for a third-party candidate, or not voting at all.  If Sanders hadn’t run, Clinton-supporters say, Democrats would have been more united in 2016 and would have defeated Trump.  Many Democrats also criticize Sanders for focusing too much on class and not enough on race, sex, or other fashionable progressive causes.  And he is a white male, the worst thing one could possibly be in the eyes of the left. 

Warren is also popular, especially among progressive women.  However, she is unappealing and has no charisma, much like Clinton.  Her appeal and popularity are limited to Democrats, and the Democratic nominee will need independents to defeat Trump in 2020.  She may not motivate nonwhite voters, especially black voters, to come to the polls, as was the case with Clinton in 2016.  Warren is a woman, and Democrats are eager to have a female president, but she is also white, so she may not be diverse enough.  Her race may be an issue in another regard.  Warren, who is originally from Oklahoma, long claimed to have American Indian ancestry.  This was later found to be in vigorous dispute, at the very least.  A party that prides itself on diversity and opposing racism nominating a white person who falsely claimed to be nonwhite is, to use the Democrats’ own terminology, problematic. 

In my opinion, the person most likely to be the Democratic nominee in 2020 is Kamala Harris, a senator from California.  She is a progressive woman “of color” and is therefore perfect to represent the new generation of Democrats.  In contrast to Biden, Sanders, and Warren, all of whom will be in their 70s on November 3, 2020, Harris is young.  Her father is an immigrant from Jamaica, and her mother is an immigrant from India, so the media could portray her as the female Obama.  In fact, there are many similarities between Harris and Obama.  Both are half-black, both spent much of their childhood outside the country (Obama in Indonesia and Harris in Canada), and both are senators from heavily blue states.  Should Harris run, she, like Obama, will face challenges from white establishment Democrats.

Of course, Harris has flaws.  Unlike Obama, she is not very charismatic or well spoken and isn’t as well known as the other possible candidates.  Harris’s conduct during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings was frankly embarrassing, but that might be a plus for Democrats.  She blatantly misrepresented Kavanaugh’s views on birth control and dismissively referred to his pocket Constitution as “that book you carry.”

The Democratic nominee in 2020 will almost certainly be a woman.  We had our first black president, then we almost had our first female president.  Democrats felt that it was time for a woman in the White House, and they are determined to have one.  There is a very good chance that the Democratic nominee will also be nonwhite.  The party seems to be turning against white people.  For the first time, white males are a minority of Democratic nominees for the House.  There is a clear pattern of nonwhites defeating white candidates, both male and female, in Democratic primaries this year.  Stacey Abrams, a black woman, defeated Stacey Evans, a white woman, in the Democratic primary for governor of Georgia.  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Hispanic woman, defeated Joe Crowley, a white man, in the Democratic primary for New York’s 14th Congressional District.  Andrew Gillum, a black man, defeated Gwen Graham, a white woman, in the Democratic primary for governor of Florida.  Ayanna Pressley, a black woman, defeated Michael Capuano, a white man, in the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’s 7th Congressional District.  It seems that this is the direction the Democratic party is going in, and it will continue to go in this direction during the presidential primaries. 

Thomas O’Malley can be contacted at thomasomalley861@yahoo.com.



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We Must Fight Back


The Left is out for blood.  In recent years, they have come to see their ideological opponents not as fellow Americans with whom they happen to disagree on certain issues, but as fundamentally bad people who do not deserve a voice and who should be silenced.  If they ever gain power in government again, they will not seek reconciliation with the other side or to bridge the partisan divide.  Instead, revenge will be the order of the day. 

It is absurd to think that the same people who consider Donald Trump a fascist and his supporters “deplorable” want anything other than revenge.  Someday, Democrats will regain control of the House, Senate and Presidency; if not in  2020, then in 2024 or later.  And when that day comes, conservatives had better be prepared.  Polls show that Republicans are much less enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in this year’s midterms.  Conservatives must turn out to vote in November.  The stakes are too high for them to stay home.

Most Republicans don’t realize just how dire the situation is.  If Democrats regain the House in 2018, that will be the end of the Trump agenda, and conservatives may not get another chance to implement such an agenda.  Democrats in Congress will probably attempt to impeach President Trump, which will likely fail in the Senate, but the attempted impeachment will divide the country like nothing else since the Civil War. 

The next Democratic president will likely appoint very liberal justices to the Supreme Court who have no respect whatsoever for the Constitution.  A Leftist Supreme Court would tear the Constitution to shreds, and you can say good-bye to your 1st and 2nd Amendment rights.  If the Supreme Court can find abortion and same-sex marriage in the 14th Amendment, meant to give citizenship to freed slaves, God knows what else they can find in the Constitution.  Perhaps in the future the Supreme Court will rule that the 1st Amendment right of freedom of speech doesn’t apply to hate speech, or that the 2nd Amendment actually mandates gun control. 

Undoubtedly any liberal who reads this will think I am being paranoid, and that I am guilty of the slippery slope fallacy.  But the slippery slope is not a fallacy if we are currently sliding down it.  If you told liberals 20 years ago or even 10 years ago that not only would same-sex marriage be legal in the whole country but that you could be fined refusing to bake a cake for a same-sex couple, they would call you crazy.  And yet here we are. 

The slippery slope is the modus operandi of the Left.  Leftists just call it “evolving” on issues.  Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton “evolved” on same-sex marriage a few years ago.  Who knows what other issues the Left will “evolve” on? 

Republicans shouldn’t focus on issues such as tax cuts or opposing same-sex marriage, universal healthcare and legalized marijuana.  Many swing voters have liberal positions on these issues, and Republicans can’t afford to alienate any of their voters.  All hands on deck are needed for the midterms. 

Instead, Republicans should focus on reducing immigration, supporting gun rights, economic nationalism and building the wall, which are far more popular both with their base and swing voters.  Many voters are not Leftist but vote for Democrats anyway because Republicans don’t have anything to offer them, while Democrats at least give them a social safety net.  The sad fact of the matter is, a welfare state once instituted is almost impossible to destroy.  Since Franklin D.  Roosevelt transformed this country into a welfare state, the Democratic Party has been dominant. 

Ever since polls on the subject have been taken, more Americans have identified as Democrats than Republicans.  Democrats won five elections in a row from 1932 to 1948, and the only Republican elected between 1932 and 1964 was the moderate Dwight D.  Eisenhower, who promised not to touch New Deal programs.  Richard Nixon was also fairly moderate, as was Gerald Ford. 

Ronald Reagan, easily the most popular post-World War II Republican president, was a Democrat for the first few decades of his life.  He insisted that he hadn’t left the Democratic Party, but they had left him, and he hadn’t changed his views.  He was a lot more moderate than people on both sides of the aisle realize.  After all, as Governor of California he signed liberal laws on no-fault divorce and abortion.  George H.  W.  Bush in effect won election as Reagan’s third term.  Since Reagan left office, a Republican had won the popular vote only once, in 2004, as a result of Americans not wanting to change horses in the middle of a stream during the Iraq War and after 9/11. 

Trump won Pennsylvania and Michigan for the first time since 1988 and Wisconsin for the first time since 1984 because like Reagan he was seen as favorable to the working class, as opposed to other Republicans who are seen as more favorable to corporations.  Since inauguration, he has governed like a conventional Republican and unless that changes ,he is unlikely to win those states in 2020. 

The key to winning the Rust Belt is protectionism.  One of the founding principles of the Republican party was protectionism.  From 1861 to 1933, all but two presidents were Republicans, both of whom were elected in part because of divisions in the Republican Party.  Such a winning streak probably won’t happen again, but protectionism is popular with workers, since it protects their jobs from foreign competition. 

If the Republican party is to have any future, it will be as a pro-workers party.  And to do that, the party’s establishment will have to give up on free trade and “corporations are people.” 

Perhaps the most important issue at stake right now is tech censorship of ideological dissidents.  Trump was able to win the 2016 election in large part because his supporters were able to bypass the mainstream media and disseminate their views through the alternative media, which is almost entirely online.  Leftists in big tech want to make sure that such a victory can never happen again.  They can’t have the child telling everyone that the emperor has no clothes. 

On Twitter countless accounts both big and small have been suspended for “inciting hate.”  The most prominent example of this was Alex Jones’s simultaneous ban from YouTube, Facebook and Apple.  Why should a small number of individuals who have almost the same political views which are greatly out of touch with the American people get to decide who can and can’t have a voice? 

Twitter, Facebook and other Internet platforms should be treated as public utilities, since that is essentially what they are.  Just as the telephone and water companies can’t ban you for your political views, tech companies shouldn’t be able to either.  Will the Trump presidency be seen as the beginning of a new era, or will this just be a blip on the radar? We have to make sure that the Trump revolution bears fruit, or else it will just be a speed bump on our road to oblivion.

Thomas OMalley can be contacted at thomasomalley861@yahoo.com

The Left is out for blood.  In recent years, they have come to see their ideological opponents not as fellow Americans with whom they happen to disagree on certain issues, but as fundamentally bad people who do not deserve a voice and who should be silenced.  If they ever gain power in government again, they will not seek reconciliation with the other side or to bridge the partisan divide.  Instead, revenge will be the order of the day. 

It is absurd to think that the same people who consider Donald Trump a fascist and his supporters “deplorable” want anything other than revenge.  Someday, Democrats will regain control of the House, Senate and Presidency; if not in  2020, then in 2024 or later.  And when that day comes, conservatives had better be prepared.  Polls show that Republicans are much less enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in this year’s midterms.  Conservatives must turn out to vote in November.  The stakes are too high for them to stay home.

Protests on Innauguration Day, 2016 (photo credit: Jack)

Most Republicans don’t realize just how dire the situation is.  If Democrats regain the House in 2018, that will be the end of the Trump agenda, and conservatives may not get another chance to implement such an agenda.  Democrats in Congress will probably attempt to impeach President Trump, which will likely fail in the Senate, but the attempted impeachment will divide the country like nothing else since the Civil War. 

The next Democratic president will likely appoint very liberal justices to the Supreme Court who have no respect whatsoever for the Constitution.  A Leftist Supreme Court would tear the Constitution to shreds, and you can say good-bye to your 1st and 2nd Amendment rights.  If the Supreme Court can find abortion and same-sex marriage in the 14th Amendment, meant to give citizenship to freed slaves, God knows what else they can find in the Constitution.  Perhaps in the future the Supreme Court will rule that the 1st Amendment right of freedom of speech doesn’t apply to hate speech, or that the 2nd Amendment actually mandates gun control. 

Undoubtedly any liberal who reads this will think I am being paranoid, and that I am guilty of the slippery slope fallacy.  But the slippery slope is not a fallacy if we are currently sliding down it.  If you told liberals 20 years ago or even 10 years ago that not only would same-sex marriage be legal in the whole country but that you could be fined refusing to bake a cake for a same-sex couple, they would call you crazy.  And yet here we are. 

The slippery slope is the modus operandi of the Left.  Leftists just call it “evolving” on issues.  Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton “evolved” on same-sex marriage a few years ago.  Who knows what other issues the Left will “evolve” on? 

Republicans shouldn’t focus on issues such as tax cuts or opposing same-sex marriage, universal healthcare and legalized marijuana.  Many swing voters have liberal positions on these issues, and Republicans can’t afford to alienate any of their voters.  All hands on deck are needed for the midterms. 

Instead, Republicans should focus on reducing immigration, supporting gun rights, economic nationalism and building the wall, which are far more popular both with their base and swing voters.  Many voters are not Leftist but vote for Democrats anyway because Republicans don’t have anything to offer them, while Democrats at least give them a social safety net.  The sad fact of the matter is, a welfare state once instituted is almost impossible to destroy.  Since Franklin D.  Roosevelt transformed this country into a welfare state, the Democratic Party has been dominant. 

Ever since polls on the subject have been taken, more Americans have identified as Democrats than Republicans.  Democrats won five elections in a row from 1932 to 1948, and the only Republican elected between 1932 and 1964 was the moderate Dwight D.  Eisenhower, who promised not to touch New Deal programs.  Richard Nixon was also fairly moderate, as was Gerald Ford. 

Ronald Reagan, easily the most popular post-World War II Republican president, was a Democrat for the first few decades of his life.  He insisted that he hadn’t left the Democratic Party, but they had left him, and he hadn’t changed his views.  He was a lot more moderate than people on both sides of the aisle realize.  After all, as Governor of California he signed liberal laws on no-fault divorce and abortion.  George H.  W.  Bush in effect won election as Reagan’s third term.  Since Reagan left office, a Republican had won the popular vote only once, in 2004, as a result of Americans not wanting to change horses in the middle of a stream during the Iraq War and after 9/11. 

Trump won Pennsylvania and Michigan for the first time since 1988 and Wisconsin for the first time since 1984 because like Reagan he was seen as favorable to the working class, as opposed to other Republicans who are seen as more favorable to corporations.  Since inauguration, he has governed like a conventional Republican and unless that changes ,he is unlikely to win those states in 2020. 

The key to winning the Rust Belt is protectionism.  One of the founding principles of the Republican party was protectionism.  From 1861 to 1933, all but two presidents were Republicans, both of whom were elected in part because of divisions in the Republican Party.  Such a winning streak probably won’t happen again, but protectionism is popular with workers, since it protects their jobs from foreign competition. 

If the Republican party is to have any future, it will be as a pro-workers party.  And to do that, the party’s establishment will have to give up on free trade and “corporations are people.” 

Perhaps the most important issue at stake right now is tech censorship of ideological dissidents.  Trump was able to win the 2016 election in large part because his supporters were able to bypass the mainstream media and disseminate their views through the alternative media, which is almost entirely online.  Leftists in big tech want to make sure that such a victory can never happen again.  They can’t have the child telling everyone that the emperor has no clothes. 

On Twitter countless accounts both big and small have been suspended for “inciting hate.”  The most prominent example of this was Alex Jones’s simultaneous ban from YouTube, Facebook and Apple.  Why should a small number of individuals who have almost the same political views which are greatly out of touch with the American people get to decide who can and can’t have a voice? 

Twitter, Facebook and other Internet platforms should be treated as public utilities, since that is essentially what they are.  Just as the telephone and water companies can’t ban you for your political views, tech companies shouldn’t be able to either.  Will the Trump presidency be seen as the beginning of a new era, or will this just be a blip on the radar? We have to make sure that the Trump revolution bears fruit, or else it will just be a speed bump on our road to oblivion.

Thomas OMalley can be contacted at thomasomalley861@yahoo.com



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