Category: David Archibald

Rich Higgins – Not Whacko Now


Rich Higgins, a Trump loyalist, was director for strategic planning in the National Security Council up to July 21 when he was fired by H.R.McMaster for writing a memo that detailed the threat to President Trump from the deep state. McMaster is the sort of nasty deep state operative that Mr Higgins was warning about. His misdeeds have been chronicled on American Thinker here and here, at least up to the end of August. Mr Higgins was widely mocked at the time for being a delusional conspiracy theorist with a fevered imagination.

The Strozk emails released this month show that the deep state is just as bad as Mr Higgins said it was. Given that Mr Higgins was proved correct, this raises the question as to what else he had to say in his memo. The memo is tightly written. He starts by saying that the Trump administration is under attack by a campaign to undermine, delegitimize and remove the President. The White House is reacted to this campaign as if it was normal politics. The “deep state” or permanent government apparatus engaging in this campaign is breaking federal law.

The hard left is aligned with Islamist organisations. Antifa has in effect aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which operates in the US as Muslim Students Association and Council of American-Islamic Relations. Globalists and Islamists recognize that for their visions to succeed, America, both as an ideal and as a national and political identity, must be destroyed. Atomization of society must also occur at the individual level; with attacks directed against all levels of group and personal identity. Hence the sexism, racism and xenophobia memes. As a Judeo-Christian culture, forced inclusion of post-modern notions of tolerance is designed to induce nihilistic contradictions that reduce all thought, all faith, all loyalties to meaninglessness. Group rights based on sex or ethnicity are a direct assault on the very idea of individual human rights and natural law around which the Constitution was framed.

The campaign operates through narratives that President Trump is illegitimate, corrupt and dishonest. Supporting narratives include:

  • “Russia hacked the election” — illegitimate
  • “Obstruction of Justice” — corrupt
  • “Hiding Collusion” — dishonest
  • “Putin Puppet” — treasonous

Thus, President Trump can’t fire Mueller be because that would aid the enemy’s supporting narrative that he is obstructing justice. Mr Higgins also names the international enemies, which include the European Union, the UN, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the International Muslim Brotherhood.

President Trump is either the candidate he ran as, or he is nothing. Candidate Trump’s rhetoric was viscerally comprehensible to a voting block that then made candidate Trump the president, making the block self-aware in the process. When President Trump is not candidate Trump, he becomes dangerously exposed. While the base that elected candidate Trump identified with his vision, they are only Trump’s insofar as he holds to the vision that made him president.

That insight was prescient with respect to the Alabama election in which President Trump failed to support the candidate aligned with his base on immigration and instead supported the one promoted by his son-in-law.

Mr Higgins concluded his memo with this advice: The administration has been maneuvred into a constant back-pedal by relentless political warfare attacks structured to force him to assume a reactive posture that assures inadequate responses. The president can either drive or be driven by events; it’s time for him to drive them.

If there is any justice in the world, if President Trump finally realises that his son-in-law is reliable counter-indicator of what he should do, then H.R. McMaster will be replaced by Rich Higgins as National Security Advisor in 2018. While we are at it, another deep state operative, Heather Wilson as Secretary of the Air Force, should be changed out too. There are many others.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.

Rich Higgins, a Trump loyalist, was director for strategic planning in the National Security Council up to July 21 when he was fired by H.R.McMaster for writing a memo that detailed the threat to President Trump from the deep state. McMaster is the sort of nasty deep state operative that Mr Higgins was warning about. His misdeeds have been chronicled on American Thinker here and here, at least up to the end of August. Mr Higgins was widely mocked at the time for being a delusional conspiracy theorist with a fevered imagination.

The Strozk emails released this month show that the deep state is just as bad as Mr Higgins said it was. Given that Mr Higgins was proved correct, this raises the question as to what else he had to say in his memo. The memo is tightly written. He starts by saying that the Trump administration is under attack by a campaign to undermine, delegitimize and remove the President. The White House is reacted to this campaign as if it was normal politics. The “deep state” or permanent government apparatus engaging in this campaign is breaking federal law.

The hard left is aligned with Islamist organisations. Antifa has in effect aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which operates in the US as Muslim Students Association and Council of American-Islamic Relations. Globalists and Islamists recognize that for their visions to succeed, America, both as an ideal and as a national and political identity, must be destroyed. Atomization of society must also occur at the individual level; with attacks directed against all levels of group and personal identity. Hence the sexism, racism and xenophobia memes. As a Judeo-Christian culture, forced inclusion of post-modern notions of tolerance is designed to induce nihilistic contradictions that reduce all thought, all faith, all loyalties to meaninglessness. Group rights based on sex or ethnicity are a direct assault on the very idea of individual human rights and natural law around which the Constitution was framed.

The campaign operates through narratives that President Trump is illegitimate, corrupt and dishonest. Supporting narratives include:

  • “Russia hacked the election” — illegitimate
  • “Obstruction of Justice” — corrupt
  • “Hiding Collusion” — dishonest
  • “Putin Puppet” — treasonous

Thus, President Trump can’t fire Mueller be because that would aid the enemy’s supporting narrative that he is obstructing justice. Mr Higgins also names the international enemies, which include the European Union, the UN, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the International Muslim Brotherhood.

President Trump is either the candidate he ran as, or he is nothing. Candidate Trump’s rhetoric was viscerally comprehensible to a voting block that then made candidate Trump the president, making the block self-aware in the process. When President Trump is not candidate Trump, he becomes dangerously exposed. While the base that elected candidate Trump identified with his vision, they are only Trump’s insofar as he holds to the vision that made him president.

That insight was prescient with respect to the Alabama election in which President Trump failed to support the candidate aligned with his base on immigration and instead supported the one promoted by his son-in-law.

Mr Higgins concluded his memo with this advice: The administration has been maneuvred into a constant back-pedal by relentless political warfare attacks structured to force him to assume a reactive posture that assures inadequate responses. The president can either drive or be driven by events; it’s time for him to drive them.

If there is any justice in the world, if President Trump finally realises that his son-in-law is reliable counter-indicator of what he should do, then H.R. McMaster will be replaced by Rich Higgins as National Security Advisor in 2018. While we are at it, another deep state operative, Heather Wilson as Secretary of the Air Force, should be changed out too. There are many others.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.



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Correct Thinking on China


The United States has been trading with China since 1784, the year a U.S.-flagged ship set out from New York for Canton. American missionaries were preaching in China by the 1830s. For some 80 years now, the United States has gone out of its way to help China, starting with the embargo on oil exports to Japan on August 1, 1941. Then after that war was over, China was included as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council despite it being in a civil war at the time. The expectation was that China would eventually join the community of civilised nations and make a positive contribution to the world.

The big leg up for China was the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations by the U.S. Congress in October 2000. This became effective when China joined the World Trade Organisation at the end of 2001. The consequences for U.S. workers were immediate and dire. U.S. manufacturing employment had fluctuated around 18 million workers between 1965 and 2000 before plunging 34 percent to 2010. Some six million workers lost their jobs.

In a 2016 paper titled ‘The Surprising Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment’, authors Justin Pierce and Peter Schott note that prior to 2000 U.S. imports from China had been subject to the relatively low normal trade relations tariffs reserved for members of the World Trade Organisation. These low rates for China required annual renewals that were uncertain and politically contentious. Without renewal U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods would have jumped to higher tariff rates. This uncertainty decreased the incentive for U.S. firms to incur the sunk costs of shifting operations to China. It was the removal of this uncertainty that triggered U.S. firms to shift operations to China, and U.S. jobs went with them. It was the risk associated with annual review of tariffs that had kept manufacturing employment in the U.S.

At the same time that they were starting to lose their jobs, the formerly employed started losing their lives at an increasing rate as shown by this graph in a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton of Princeton University published in March this year:

This figure shows deaths per 100,000 of population for men and women aged 50 to 54 for a number of countries including France, Germany, Sweden, UK, Canada and Australia; U.S. whites are the red line. All the other countries are stable or falling but the death rate for this age cohort started rising steeply from the time they started losing their jobs to China. Case and Deaton found a marked difference in death rates by race and education. Death rates among non-Hispanics — both males and females — are rising for those without a college degree. It is falling for those with a college degree. In contrast, death rates among Blacks and Hispanics have continued to fall irrespective of educational attainment. Death rates in comparable rich countries have continued to fall at rates that used to occur in the United States until the beginning of this century.

But which whites are dying at an increasing rate? Figure 1.1 from Case and Deaton’s paper shows that it is white non-Hispanics with a high school education or less:

For Hispanics the U.S. has increasingly become the happy kingdom. They are happy because they don’t live in Mexico and PC nonsense doesn’t get translated into Spanish. The death rate for whites without a high school education though has risen above that for blacks. What is killing these people is mainly deaths of despair — drug and alcohol poisoning, suicide and alcoholic liver disease and cirrhosis as shown by the following graphs adapted from Figure 7 of the Case and Deaton paper:

We could get our jobs back from China, with a consequent decline in the death rate of working class whites, without too much legislative effort but that would still leave the problem of China’s thirst for military aggression. Closing America to Chinese goods would help choke off the cash flow that funds that aggression.

The mafia operation that runs China, the Communist Party of China, had its 19th party congress in October. President Xi’s speech at that congress didn’t impart new information. Because Mandarin is a tonal cacophony which makes the communication of anything more than a simple notion difficult, ideas tend to be imparted as word symbols. Thus these lines from Xi’s speech:

We have committed to “examining ourselves in the mirror, tidying our attire, taking a bath, and treating our ailments,” launched activities to see members command and act on the Party’s mass line, and initiated a campaign for the observance of the Three Stricts and Three Earnests.


We have taken firm action to “take out tigers,” “swat flies,” and “hunt down foxes.”

His most foreboding words were near the end:

The wheels of history roll on; the tides of the times are vast and mighty. History looks kindly on those with resolve, with drive and ambition, and with plenty of guts; it won’t wait for the hesitant, the apathetic, or those shy of a challenge.

President Xi is no caretaker. He intends to provide the ambition that will get some history written in other people’s blood. He is also aware that the window of opportunity to do that is closing as China’s credit-driven growth finally stalls and its energy production starts falling.

Now is the time to ask Lenin’s question ‘What is to be done?’ North Korea provides the perfect excuse for imposing tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S., with the rates continuing to rise until North Korea gives up on nuclear weapons and ICBMs. If China backs down and disarms North Korea, that would be an enormous loss of face which would likely topple Xi. If he doesn’t back down, U.S. workers would get their jobs and lives back. China has been indulged long enough. They have no intention of joining the community of civilised nations.  

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

The United States has been trading with China since 1784, the year a U.S.-flagged ship set out from New York for Canton. American missionaries were preaching in China by the 1830s. For some 80 years now, the United States has gone out of its way to help China, starting with the embargo on oil exports to Japan on August 1, 1941. Then after that war was over, China was included as one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council despite it being in a civil war at the time. The expectation was that China would eventually join the community of civilised nations and make a positive contribution to the world.

The big leg up for China was the granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations by the U.S. Congress in October 2000. This became effective when China joined the World Trade Organisation at the end of 2001. The consequences for U.S. workers were immediate and dire. U.S. manufacturing employment had fluctuated around 18 million workers between 1965 and 2000 before plunging 34 percent to 2010. Some six million workers lost their jobs.

In a 2016 paper titled ‘The Surprising Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment’, authors Justin Pierce and Peter Schott note that prior to 2000 U.S. imports from China had been subject to the relatively low normal trade relations tariffs reserved for members of the World Trade Organisation. These low rates for China required annual renewals that were uncertain and politically contentious. Without renewal U.S. import tariffs on Chinese goods would have jumped to higher tariff rates. This uncertainty decreased the incentive for U.S. firms to incur the sunk costs of shifting operations to China. It was the removal of this uncertainty that triggered U.S. firms to shift operations to China, and U.S. jobs went with them. It was the risk associated with annual review of tariffs that had kept manufacturing employment in the U.S.

At the same time that they were starting to lose their jobs, the formerly employed started losing their lives at an increasing rate as shown by this graph in a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton of Princeton University published in March this year:

This figure shows deaths per 100,000 of population for men and women aged 50 to 54 for a number of countries including France, Germany, Sweden, UK, Canada and Australia; U.S. whites are the red line. All the other countries are stable or falling but the death rate for this age cohort started rising steeply from the time they started losing their jobs to China. Case and Deaton found a marked difference in death rates by race and education. Death rates among non-Hispanics — both males and females — are rising for those without a college degree. It is falling for those with a college degree. In contrast, death rates among Blacks and Hispanics have continued to fall irrespective of educational attainment. Death rates in comparable rich countries have continued to fall at rates that used to occur in the United States until the beginning of this century.

But which whites are dying at an increasing rate? Figure 1.1 from Case and Deaton’s paper shows that it is white non-Hispanics with a high school education or less:

For Hispanics the U.S. has increasingly become the happy kingdom. They are happy because they don’t live in Mexico and PC nonsense doesn’t get translated into Spanish. The death rate for whites without a high school education though has risen above that for blacks. What is killing these people is mainly deaths of despair — drug and alcohol poisoning, suicide and alcoholic liver disease and cirrhosis as shown by the following graphs adapted from Figure 7 of the Case and Deaton paper:

We could get our jobs back from China, with a consequent decline in the death rate of working class whites, without too much legislative effort but that would still leave the problem of China’s thirst for military aggression. Closing America to Chinese goods would help choke off the cash flow that funds that aggression.

The mafia operation that runs China, the Communist Party of China, had its 19th party congress in October. President Xi’s speech at that congress didn’t impart new information. Because Mandarin is a tonal cacophony which makes the communication of anything more than a simple notion difficult, ideas tend to be imparted as word symbols. Thus these lines from Xi’s speech:

We have committed to “examining ourselves in the mirror, tidying our attire, taking a bath, and treating our ailments,” launched activities to see members command and act on the Party’s mass line, and initiated a campaign for the observance of the Three Stricts and Three Earnests.


We have taken firm action to “take out tigers,” “swat flies,” and “hunt down foxes.”

His most foreboding words were near the end:

The wheels of history roll on; the tides of the times are vast and mighty. History looks kindly on those with resolve, with drive and ambition, and with plenty of guts; it won’t wait for the hesitant, the apathetic, or those shy of a challenge.

President Xi is no caretaker. He intends to provide the ambition that will get some history written in other people’s blood. He is also aware that the window of opportunity to do that is closing as China’s credit-driven growth finally stalls and its energy production starts falling.

Now is the time to ask Lenin’s question ‘What is to be done?’ North Korea provides the perfect excuse for imposing tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the U.S., with the rates continuing to rise until North Korea gives up on nuclear weapons and ICBMs. If China backs down and disarms North Korea, that would be an enormous loss of face which would likely topple Xi. If he doesn’t back down, U.S. workers would get their jobs and lives back. China has been indulged long enough. They have no intention of joining the community of civilised nations.  

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare



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China's War Timing Firming Up


Part of Obama’s baleful legacy is that during the Scarborough Shoal Incident of April to June 2012, the Filipino president travelled to Washington to ask Obama for U.S. support. Obama didn’t offer support, no operational support followed and China read that as the signal to seize territory from a U.S. ally. As is the usual pattern, the consequence of not dealing forcefully against a minor aggression will lead to a much bigger war down the track.

The Chinese leader that organised the seizure of Scarborough Shoal, Xi Jinping, became a national hero and that gave him the political momentum to see off rivals to become president of the People’s Republic of China the following year. As retired U.S. Navy captain James Fanell noted, while in the West the Scarborough seizure was treated as a minor fisheries dispute, Chinese scholars recognized the significance of Xi’s template for mooting U.S. alliances by undercutting confidence in defense agreements, calling it the ‘Scarborough Model’.

Emboldened by Obama’s acquiescence, China is preparing for a “short, sharp war” to seize the Senkaku Islands from Japan. They are building specialised equipment to that end. Again from Captain Fanell:

Size matters in confrontations at sea, especially between coast guard vessels. As China has sought more of its neighbors’ maritime sovereignty, it has built ever-larger coast guard ships. These are intended to enable its civil maritime forces to carry out China’s  campaign more aggressively (having the biggest ship on scene), and to conduct them at  increasing distances from China’s coastline. As such, China has demonstrated its commitment to have the largest coast guard vessels in the Asia Pacific region. In 2014, China commissioned the largest coast guard cutter in the world, at 12,000 tons, the Zhongguo Haijing 2901. This cutter first went to sea for the first time in May 2015 and is subordinated to the East China Sea area of responsibility. A second ship of the class, CCG 3901, was completed and made ready for operations in January 2016. The Communist Party’s People’s Daily made the purpose of these ships crystal-clear, stating they were designed to have “the power to smash into a vessel weighing more than 20,000 tons and will not cause any damage to itself when confronting a vessel weighing under 9,000 tons. It can also destroy a 5,000-ton ship and sink it to the sea floor.”

Note carefully the combat assault mission of these Chinese Coast Guard ships.

Sinking ships by ramming is a throwback to how triremes did battle in the Mediterranean. It also tells us how China plans to start its war. The super-sized Chinese coast guard ships will ram and sink Japanese coast guard vessels. When the Japanese Navy responds by sinking the Chinese coast guard ships, the Chinese PLA Navy will come over the horizon with amphibious assault ships. China will claim to be the aggrieved party and offer to end hostilities, leaving it in possession of what it seized.

The Chinese have been doing some dry runs for the conflict to come. Around midday on August 5th, 2016, some 200 to 300 Chinese fishing boats swarmed into the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands of Kuban and Uotsuri, followed by 15 Chinese coast guard vessels by August 9th. Come the actual battle, there will be hundreds of Chinese vessels to be sunk, much like plinking tanks in the deserts of the Middle East.

China’s intent is plain, the next question is the timing. The Communist Party of China has directed the People’s Liberation Army to transform itself into a force that will be ready to take Taiwan by 2020. A Senkaku campaign will be a lot easier than subduing Taiwan, and possession of the Senkakus in turn will make the Taiwan campaign easier to mount by partial envelopment of that island. The PLA Navy is still expanding and China might not start its war until its navy is somewhat larger than it is now. Of particular interest is a new class of amphibious assault ships, the Type 075. Approximately the size of the U.S. Navy’s Wasp-class ships, the Type 075 is projected to carry up to 30 helicopters and have the ability to launch six helicopters simultaneously. The first Type 075 class may be launched in 2019 and in service in 2020. Another four might be built by 2025.

There are a few other considerations which have the potential to bring forward China’s war plans. China’s economic growth is mostly debt-funded construction of unproductive assets, so China’s debt to GDP ratio continues to climb. Everyone knows this is unsustainable, that it will end in tears but nobody knows when. A stalling economy and tens of millions of personal bankruptcies as China’s real estate bubble pops would encourage the regime to distract the public with a foreign military adventure. Then there is the question of China’s energy supply. China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to be about 700 million barrels and still building at one million barrels per day. The Chinese reserve will probably keep building until the day the war starts and U.S. and Japanese submarines begin sinking Chinese tankers.

But the big story in energy, internationally, is the projected peaking of Chinese coal production in 2020 before it starts falling away due to resource exhaustion. Chinese coal production of over four billion tons per annum is about four times the U.S. production level. Coal is the source of two thirds of power generation in China, about the same for chemical feedstocks and is the source of all the nitrogenous fertiliser they use. The energy content of Chinese coal production is equivalent to 58 million barrels of oil per day. The production cost of coal, and thus the cost of doing everything in China, will start rising once production has peaked. It is unlikely that China’s nuclear power sector will expand fast enough to compensate. Thus China’s competitiveness relative to countries that have plenty of coal remaining will fall. This will factor into President Xi’s timing of his war.

Now is the time to ask Lenin’s question “What is to be done?” The important thing is to shun anything made in China because that just funds their aggression. Choose the Samsung offering over the iPhone for no other reason. And be nice to any Japanese or Vietnamese you meet. We need them to have courage.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

Part of Obama’s baleful legacy is that during the Scarborough Shoal Incident of April to June 2012, the Filipino president travelled to Washington to ask Obama for U.S. support. Obama didn’t offer support, no operational support followed and China read that as the signal to seize territory from a U.S. ally. As is the usual pattern, the consequence of not dealing forcefully against a minor aggression will lead to a much bigger war down the track.

The Chinese leader that organised the seizure of Scarborough Shoal, Xi Jinping, became a national hero and that gave him the political momentum to see off rivals to become president of the People’s Republic of China the following year. As retired U.S. Navy captain James Fanell noted, while in the West the Scarborough seizure was treated as a minor fisheries dispute, Chinese scholars recognized the significance of Xi’s template for mooting U.S. alliances by undercutting confidence in defense agreements, calling it the ‘Scarborough Model’.

Emboldened by Obama’s acquiescence, China is preparing for a “short, sharp war” to seize the Senkaku Islands from Japan. They are building specialised equipment to that end. Again from Captain Fanell:

Size matters in confrontations at sea, especially between coast guard vessels. As China has sought more of its neighbors’ maritime sovereignty, it has built ever-larger coast guard ships. These are intended to enable its civil maritime forces to carry out China’s  campaign more aggressively (having the biggest ship on scene), and to conduct them at  increasing distances from China’s coastline. As such, China has demonstrated its commitment to have the largest coast guard vessels in the Asia Pacific region. In 2014, China commissioned the largest coast guard cutter in the world, at 12,000 tons, the Zhongguo Haijing 2901. This cutter first went to sea for the first time in May 2015 and is subordinated to the East China Sea area of responsibility. A second ship of the class, CCG 3901, was completed and made ready for operations in January 2016. The Communist Party’s People’s Daily made the purpose of these ships crystal-clear, stating they were designed to have “the power to smash into a vessel weighing more than 20,000 tons and will not cause any damage to itself when confronting a vessel weighing under 9,000 tons. It can also destroy a 5,000-ton ship and sink it to the sea floor.”

Note carefully the combat assault mission of these Chinese Coast Guard ships.

Sinking ships by ramming is a throwback to how triremes did battle in the Mediterranean. It also tells us how China plans to start its war. The super-sized Chinese coast guard ships will ram and sink Japanese coast guard vessels. When the Japanese Navy responds by sinking the Chinese coast guard ships, the Chinese PLA Navy will come over the horizon with amphibious assault ships. China will claim to be the aggrieved party and offer to end hostilities, leaving it in possession of what it seized.

The Chinese have been doing some dry runs for the conflict to come. Around midday on August 5th, 2016, some 200 to 300 Chinese fishing boats swarmed into the contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands of Kuban and Uotsuri, followed by 15 Chinese coast guard vessels by August 9th. Come the actual battle, there will be hundreds of Chinese vessels to be sunk, much like plinking tanks in the deserts of the Middle East.

China’s intent is plain, the next question is the timing. The Communist Party of China has directed the People’s Liberation Army to transform itself into a force that will be ready to take Taiwan by 2020. A Senkaku campaign will be a lot easier than subduing Taiwan, and possession of the Senkakus in turn will make the Taiwan campaign easier to mount by partial envelopment of that island. The PLA Navy is still expanding and China might not start its war until its navy is somewhat larger than it is now. Of particular interest is a new class of amphibious assault ships, the Type 075. Approximately the size of the U.S. Navy’s Wasp-class ships, the Type 075 is projected to carry up to 30 helicopters and have the ability to launch six helicopters simultaneously. The first Type 075 class may be launched in 2019 and in service in 2020. Another four might be built by 2025.

There are a few other considerations which have the potential to bring forward China’s war plans. China’s economic growth is mostly debt-funded construction of unproductive assets, so China’s debt to GDP ratio continues to climb. Everyone knows this is unsustainable, that it will end in tears but nobody knows when. A stalling economy and tens of millions of personal bankruptcies as China’s real estate bubble pops would encourage the regime to distract the public with a foreign military adventure. Then there is the question of China’s energy supply. China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated to be about 700 million barrels and still building at one million barrels per day. The Chinese reserve will probably keep building until the day the war starts and U.S. and Japanese submarines begin sinking Chinese tankers.

But the big story in energy, internationally, is the projected peaking of Chinese coal production in 2020 before it starts falling away due to resource exhaustion. Chinese coal production of over four billion tons per annum is about four times the U.S. production level. Coal is the source of two thirds of power generation in China, about the same for chemical feedstocks and is the source of all the nitrogenous fertiliser they use. The energy content of Chinese coal production is equivalent to 58 million barrels of oil per day. The production cost of coal, and thus the cost of doing everything in China, will start rising once production has peaked. It is unlikely that China’s nuclear power sector will expand fast enough to compensate. Thus China’s competitiveness relative to countries that have plenty of coal remaining will fall. This will factor into President Xi’s timing of his war.

Now is the time to ask Lenin’s question “What is to be done?” The important thing is to shun anything made in China because that just funds their aggression. Choose the Samsung offering over the iPhone for no other reason. And be nice to any Japanese or Vietnamese you meet. We need them to have courage.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare



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The Curious Case of Rainer Baake


Are you worried about the Russian influence on the presidential election? If so, there’s a chance you are at least eight years too late. Consider the curious case of Rainer Baake, born in 1955 in the West German town of Witten. From his German Wikipedia entry (translated):

After the Abitur (final high school examinations), Rainer Baake worked as a Community Organizer in Chicago from 1974 to 1978.

So a 19 year old German went from a small town in Germany to be a community organiser in Chicago for four years. This is as strange as a 19-year-old African-American would be going from the Midwest to work as a community organizer in Hamburg, overcoming the problems of a different skin color and a high-school-level language abiliy. 

Doubtless young Rainer had a burning ambition to inform disadvantaged Chicago residents of tenants’ rights and the like.

Or perhaps not? And four years? It was as if it was his job or education, that he didn’t have a normal life to get back to.

The next question is who paid for young Rainer to be in Chicago?  

One suspect should be Markus Wolf, head of the Main Directorate for Reconnaissance (the foreign intelligence division) of East Germany’s Ministry for State Security, commonly known as the Stasi. He is considered to be the most successful spymaster in the entire post-World War II period. West Germany was riddled with Stasi agents, including, at one stage, the secretary to the German Chancellor, Willy Brandt, who had to resign as a consequence.  The Stasi would have known who all the promising young West German communists were.

But there is most likely to be another layer. Most people would be aware that the Russians have influenced public opinion in the West against fracking, which is a threat to their income. So have the Saudis, for that matter. For some reason the Russian campaign against fracking doesn’t concern many people. Influence campaigns to change public opinion in the target country, and thus weaken it, have a long history.

If we consider the possibility that young Herr Baake’s presence in community organizing circles in Chicago was connected to Communist influence strategies, the simplest explanation for young Rainer’s presence in Chicago forty years ago was that a Russian or East German national would attract attention, while a West German would not.  And a young communist straight out of high school in West Germany would be highly expendable if things didn’t work out.

There were plenty of communists, socialists and allies in Chicago at the time for Rainer Baake to coordinate with, including Frank Davis Marshall, Saul Alinsky and Bill Ayers.  That seems likely to explain the choice of Chicago for Rainer Baake’s stint at communiy organizing. Barack Obama was born in 1961 and was thus 17 when Rainer Baake returned to West Germany. Mr Obama’s turn at community organizing in Chicago was from June 1985 to May 1988.

East Germany disappeared in 1990 with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Russia continued, somewhat shrunken though retaining a highly effective espionage operation. But Russian agents still have a hard time operating in the United States. So the handling of the Chicago community organizer operation was passed to Cuban intelligence, the Dirección General de Inteligencia, I am told by sources in the DC intelligence community.

Obama, as president, did what he could to reduce the size of the U.S. economy with climate concerns as the excuse. The economy has bounced back strongly now that his regulations are being removed by President Trump.  No wonder Chancellor Merkel was so upset at President Trump over the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement – because she is from a privileged family in the East German nomenklatura, and the product of a similar influence campaign.  Merkel is flat out trying to shrink the German economy with climate-based restrictions, including closure of Germany’s nuclear reactors. She is ably assisted to that end by Rainer Baake, who reappears in our story as State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy in Berlin. His main preoccupation now is wrecking the German car industry.

Of course, this thesis has a slender basis, and there could be many other possibilities. But we are dealing with people who knew the importance of covering their tracks. For example, in retirement Markus Wolf wrote his memoirs, which were published in English and German. The content and message, for each language, is different because he had two different audiences to manipulate and influence.

David Archibald’s latest book is American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare

Are you worried about the Russian influence on the presidential election? If so, there’s a chance you are at least eight years too late. Consider the curious case of Rainer Baake, born in 1955 in the West German town of Witten. From his German Wikipedia entry (translated):

After the Abitur (final high school examinations), Rainer Baake worked as a Community Organizer in Chicago from 1974 to 1978.

So a 19 year old German went from a small town in Germany to be a community organiser in Chicago for four years. This is as strange as a 19-year-old African-American would be going from the Midwest to work as a community organizer in Hamburg, overcoming the problems of a different skin color and a high-school-level language abiliy. 

Doubtless young Rainer had a burning ambition to inform disadvantaged Chicago residents of tenants’ rights and the like.

Or perhaps not? And four years? It was as if it was his job or education, that he didn’t have a normal life to get back to.

The next question is who paid for young Rainer to be in Chicago?  

One suspect should be Markus Wolf, head of the Main Directorate for Reconnaissance (the foreign intelligence division) of East Germany’s Ministry for State Security, commonly known as the Stasi. He is considered to be the most successful spymaster in the entire post-World War II period. West Germany was riddled with Stasi agents, including, at one stage, the secretary to the German Chancellor, Willy Brandt, who had to resign as a consequence.  The Stasi would have known who all the promising young West German communists were.

But there is most likely to be another layer. Most people would be aware that the Russians have influenced public opinion in the West against fracking, which is a threat to their income. So have the Saudis, for that matter. For some reason the Russian campaign against fracking doesn’t concern many people. Influence campaigns to change public opinion in the target country, and thus weaken it, have a long history.

If we consider the possibility that young Herr Baake’s presence in community organizing circles in Chicago was connected to Communist influence strategies, the simplest explanation for young Rainer’s presence in Chicago forty years ago was that a Russian or East German national would attract attention, while a West German would not.  And a young communist straight out of high school in West Germany would be highly expendable if things didn’t work out.

There were plenty of communists, socialists and allies in Chicago at the time for Rainer Baake to coordinate with, including Frank Davis Marshall, Saul Alinsky and Bill Ayers.  That seems likely to explain the choice of Chicago for Rainer Baake’s stint at communiy organizing. Barack Obama was born in 1961 and was thus 17 when Rainer Baake returned to West Germany. Mr Obama’s turn at community organizing in Chicago was from June 1985 to May 1988.

East Germany disappeared in 1990 with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Russia continued, somewhat shrunken though retaining a highly effective espionage operation. But Russian agents still have a hard time operating in the United States. So the handling of the Chicago community organizer operation was passed to Cuban intelligence, the Dirección General de Inteligencia, I am told by sources in the DC intelligence community.

Obama, as president, did what he could to reduce the size of the U.S. economy with climate concerns as the excuse. The economy has bounced back strongly now that his regulations are being removed by President Trump.  No wonder Chancellor Merkel was so upset at President Trump over the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement – because she is from a privileged family in the East German nomenklatura, and the product of a similar influence campaign.  Merkel is flat out trying to shrink the German economy with climate-based restrictions, including closure of Germany’s nuclear reactors. She is ably assisted to that end by Rainer Baake, who reappears in our story as State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy in Berlin. His main preoccupation now is wrecking the German car industry.

Of course, this thesis has a slender basis, and there could be many other possibilities. But we are dealing with people who knew the importance of covering their tracks. For example, in retirement Markus Wolf wrote his memoirs, which were published in English and German. The content and message, for each language, is different because he had two different audiences to manipulate and influence.

David Archibald’s latest book is American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare



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The Nazi Origins of Renewable Energy (and Global Warming)


Why study history, and such an ugly subject as the Nazi rise in the Weimar Republic?  Because, quoting George Santayana, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.  It seems we have forgotten a lot, because, as a civilization, we are repeating the mad Nazi schemes of renewable energy on a massive scale.

A good source document is this book:



Cover of Technology and Economy in Third Reich: A Program for Work by Franz Lawaszeck, published in 1933

Dr. Franz Lawaszeck was an inventor and manufacturer of hydropower turbines in Bavaria.  As an early member of Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (the National Socialist German Workers’ Party or Nazi Party), he soon became a prominent spokesman about the economic policy of the party, especially energy policy.  He was clearly in the left-wing anti-capitalist part of the party and had a close relation to other leftist National Socialists such as Feder, Streicher, Himmler, Backe, Goebbels, etc.  His book starts by decrying the capitalist state and calling for the life-essential equilibrium that can exist only in a corporatist state.

Dr Lawaszeck begins discussing energy on page 10.  Big industries in a capitalist society have an advantage in that they can produce their own power on site for 1.5-2.0 pfennig/kWh, whereas small businesses pay 10-25 pfennig/kWh.

Then, on to page 12 and the hydrogen economy:

It seems that the transformation of society to a hydrogen society is an important step to a new industrial revolution.  We shall use this “vorsprung durch technik” [advantage by technology].  Hydrogen engines are more powerful than engines driven by diesel or benzene.  With the inexpensive oxygen, it will be cheaper to manufacture and weld steel.  So we could successfully compete on the world market and export more.  We can then pay back our national debt, even when we have reduced the interest to zero.

On page 47, he gets into the intended Nazi transformation of the power industry:

In short, industry’s needs can be filled by hydro-wind power and coal.  Coal is wasted because it is so cheap, so long-term economic effects are not taken into consideration.  Coal would be much better utilized for making valuable chemicals and other products.  Hydro and wind power can provide up to 80% of energy.  The renewable energy is flowing and free.  Why aren’t they used more?  Interest on money is the greatest obstacle for making hydro and wind profitable. As long we have interest on money, it will restrict the use of hydropower.

Then on to the hydrogen economy on page 60:

Our mission is to build the new hydro and wind power plants independent of the electrical grid, so they produce valuable storable energy in the form of hydrogen gas.  Hydrogen can easily be stored and transported in pipelines.  Hydrogen will be produced by pressure electrolysis, so the gas will be compressed without extra energy consumption.

And then more on wind power:

Wind power, using the cost-free wind, can be built on a large scale.  Improved technology will in the future make it no more expensive than thermal power.  This is technically and economically possible and opens up a quite new life-important type of power generation.  The future of wind is no longer small windmills, but very large real power plants.  The wind towers must be at least 100 m [330 ft] high, the higher the better, ideally with rotors 100 m [330 ft] in diameter.  This kind of high cage mast is already built in the shape of high radio masts.



Design for a 1,300-foot-high wind tower producing 20 MW

Also from the Nazi national newspaper Volkischer Beobachter (the People’s Observer) of February 24, 1932:

In a sensational speech by the constructor of the biggest steel towers in Germany, the well known engineer Hermann Honnef from the Rhineland, at the Institute of Physics of the Technical University [Hochschule] in Berlin, mentioned that in the height between 70 to 90 meters [230 to 300 ft], a high wind zone is starting that can deliver wind energy.  Honnef had in yearlong research constructed a high-zone wind power project, which he declared in details.  The influence of variable wind is eliminated totally.  The most interesting result of his experiments is that it is possible to use the different strengths of wind in different areas to a degree, that only 3 to 5% in the yearly peak demand is left.  This is a huge improvement compared with the much bigger variability of hydro power.  He will combine hydro power with his wind power constructions, which are delivering the base electricity, and in this way improve the utility of hydro power considerably.


The surplus electricity from the windmills, situated along the sea coast, will be used for the production of very inexpensive hydrogen.  This will make many products less expensive.  Fertilizers will fall in price.  The hydration of coal to liquids will be cost-effective.  The cost can be reduced from 17 pfennig per litre [64 pfennig per gallon] to 7-8 pfennig per litre [26-30 pfennig per gallon].  In this way about one billion Reichsmark can be saved, which today goes abroad (for importing oil).  The 300,000 workers in the coal mining industry can keep their jobs, 200,000 in the mines and 100,000 for the liquefaction of coal.  The cost savings will make it possible that an additional 400,000 workers can be paid in the transforming process of the industry


Big and small farms shall get the possibility to purchase electricity in surplus times at very reasonable prices, from 6 p.m. to 8 a.m. and 12 noon to 1 p.m.  At least 1 million new small farms shall be established. The cheap electricity makes it possible to heat the land, and then get a third harvest.  Again, billions can be saved, which we normally pay to foreign countries for vegetables, salad, fruits, etc.  During the night, electricity of about 1 kWh for 1 square meter [11 square feet] of land will be sufficient.

One of the 1,300-foot-high wind towers would have taken 27,500 tons of steel to make, approaching the amount used in the Scharnhorst.  So wiser heads prevailed, and the Nazi renewables push petered out by 1936.  But another pernicious Nazi influence was rising. Hermann Flohn, born in 1912, received his doctorate in 1934 and began work for the German Meteorological Service.  In 1941, he published the first German-language article on global warming, the title of which translates as The Activity of Man as a Climate Factor.  Also in that year, he became the chief meteorologist for the Luftwaffe High Command, providing advice for Operation Barbarossa.  Herr Flohn survived the war and was still pubishing alarmist papers on global warming 40 years later – for example, the title of this paper in the journal Umschau in 1980:

Translates as C02-Induced Warmth More Dangerous than Nuclear Energy.  These sentences tell you all you need to know from it:

Up to a value of 450 ppm, there are apparently only risks that can be countered by an adaptation strategy[.]

A really catastrophic climate can only be expected at about 750 ppm: the freezing of the Arctic ice ocean shifts the climate and precipitation belts around 600 to 800 km [375 to 500 mi] to the North Pole (less to the South Pole).

So if you have ever wondered about the intellectual origins of renewable energy and global warming, they had their beginnings during an ugly period of history – through misanthropic schemes created by people with a repulsive Weltanschauung.

David Archibald’s fight against totalitarian ideologies has been recognized by Anti Fascist Action Sydney.

Why study history, and such an ugly subject as the Nazi rise in the Weimar Republic?  Because, quoting George Santayana, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.  It seems we have forgotten a lot, because, as a civilization, we are repeating the mad Nazi schemes of renewable energy on a massive scale.

A good source document is this book:



Cover of Technology and Economy in Third Reich: A Program for Work by Franz Lawaszeck, published in 1933

Dr. Franz Lawaszeck was an inventor and manufacturer of hydropower turbines in Bavaria.  As an early member of Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (the National Socialist German Workers’ Party or Nazi Party), he soon became a prominent spokesman about the economic policy of the party, especially energy policy.  He was clearly in the left-wing anti-capitalist part of the party and had a close relation to other leftist National Socialists such as Feder, Streicher, Himmler, Backe, Goebbels, etc.  His book starts by decrying the capitalist state and calling for the life-essential equilibrium that can exist only in a corporatist state.

Dr Lawaszeck begins discussing energy on page 10.  Big industries in a capitalist society have an advantage in that they can produce their own power on site for 1.5-2.0 pfennig/kWh, whereas small businesses pay 10-25 pfennig/kWh.

Then, on to page 12 and the hydrogen economy:

It seems that the transformation of society to a hydrogen society is an important step to a new industrial revolution.  We shall use this “vorsprung durch technik” [advantage by technology].  Hydrogen engines are more powerful than engines driven by diesel or benzene.  With the inexpensive oxygen, it will be cheaper to manufacture and weld steel.  So we could successfully compete on the world market and export more.  We can then pay back our national debt, even when we have reduced the interest to zero.

On page 47, he gets into the intended Nazi transformation of the power industry:

In short, industry’s needs can be filled by hydro-wind power and coal.  Coal is wasted because it is so cheap, so long-term economic effects are not taken into consideration.  Coal would be much better utilized for making valuable chemicals and other products.  Hydro and wind power can provide up to 80% of energy.  The renewable energy is flowing and free.  Why aren’t they used more?  Interest on money is the greatest obstacle for making hydro and wind profitable. As long we have interest on money, it will restrict the use of hydropower.

Then on to the hydrogen economy on page 60:

Our mission is to build the new hydro and wind power plants independent of the electrical grid, so they produce valuable storable energy in the form of hydrogen gas.  Hydrogen can easily be stored and transported in pipelines.  Hydrogen will be produced by pressure electrolysis, so the gas will be compressed without extra energy consumption.

And then more on wind power:

Wind power, using the cost-free wind, can be built on a large scale.  Improved technology will in the future make it no more expensive than thermal power.  This is technically and economically possible and opens up a quite new life-important type of power generation.  The future of wind is no longer small windmills, but very large real power plants.  The wind towers must be at least 100 m [330 ft] high, the higher the better, ideally with rotors 100 m [330 ft] in diameter.  This kind of high cage mast is already built in the shape of high radio masts.



Design for a 1,300-foot-high wind tower producing 20 MW

Also from the Nazi national newspaper Volkischer Beobachter (the People’s Observer) of February 24, 1932:

In a sensational speech by the constructor of the biggest steel towers in Germany, the well known engineer Hermann Honnef from the Rhineland, at the Institute of Physics of the Technical University [Hochschule] in Berlin, mentioned that in the height between 70 to 90 meters [230 to 300 ft], a high wind zone is starting that can deliver wind energy.  Honnef had in yearlong research constructed a high-zone wind power project, which he declared in details.  The influence of variable wind is eliminated totally.  The most interesting result of his experiments is that it is possible to use the different strengths of wind in different areas to a degree, that only 3 to 5% in the yearly peak demand is left.  This is a huge improvement compared with the much bigger variability of hydro power.  He will combine hydro power with his wind power constructions, which are delivering the base electricity, and in this way improve the utility of hydro power considerably.


The surplus electricity from the windmills, situated along the sea coast, will be used for the production of very inexpensive hydrogen.  This will make many products less expensive.  Fertilizers will fall in price.  The hydration of coal to liquids will be cost-effective.  The cost can be reduced from 17 pfennig per litre [64 pfennig per gallon] to 7-8 pfennig per litre [26-30 pfennig per gallon].  In this way about one billion Reichsmark can be saved, which today goes abroad (for importing oil).  The 300,000 workers in the coal mining industry can keep their jobs, 200,000 in the mines and 100,000 for the liquefaction of coal.  The cost savings will make it possible that an additional 400,000 workers can be paid in the transforming process of the industry


Big and small farms shall get the possibility to purchase electricity in surplus times at very reasonable prices, from 6 p.m. to 8 a.m. and 12 noon to 1 p.m.  At least 1 million new small farms shall be established. The cheap electricity makes it possible to heat the land, and then get a third harvest.  Again, billions can be saved, which we normally pay to foreign countries for vegetables, salad, fruits, etc.  During the night, electricity of about 1 kWh for 1 square meter [11 square feet] of land will be sufficient.

One of the 1,300-foot-high wind towers would have taken 27,500 tons of steel to make, approaching the amount used in the Scharnhorst.  So wiser heads prevailed, and the Nazi renewables push petered out by 1936.  But another pernicious Nazi influence was rising. Hermann Flohn, born in 1912, received his doctorate in 1934 and began work for the German Meteorological Service.  In 1941, he published the first German-language article on global warming, the title of which translates as The Activity of Man as a Climate Factor.  Also in that year, he became the chief meteorologist for the Luftwaffe High Command, providing advice for Operation Barbarossa.  Herr Flohn survived the war and was still pubishing alarmist papers on global warming 40 years later – for example, the title of this paper in the journal Umschau in 1980:

Translates as C02-Induced Warmth More Dangerous than Nuclear Energy.  These sentences tell you all you need to know from it:

Up to a value of 450 ppm, there are apparently only risks that can be countered by an adaptation strategy[.]

A really catastrophic climate can only be expected at about 750 ppm: the freezing of the Arctic ice ocean shifts the climate and precipitation belts around 600 to 800 km [375 to 500 mi] to the North Pole (less to the South Pole).

So if you have ever wondered about the intellectual origins of renewable energy and global warming, they had their beginnings during an ugly period of history – through misanthropic schemes created by people with a repulsive Weltanschauung.

David Archibald’s fight against totalitarian ideologies has been recognized by Anti Fascist Action Sydney.



Source link

China Is Ticking All the Boxes on Its Path to War


There are currently three communiques that have guided U.S.-China relations for the last 45 years. These joint statements by the U.S. and Chinese governments were signed in 1972, 1979, and 1982. Among other things, the second communique states that, “Neither should seek hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region or in any other region of the world”. 

China has recently been attempting to have the U.S. sign onto a Fourth Communique under which the U.S. would no longer consider Taiwan as an ally or deal with it in any military or diplomatic terms. In effect, the U.S. would peacefully decline and leave the Western Pacific to China. The White House rejected it prior to the meeting of the U.S. and Chinese presidents on April 6-7 at Mar-a-Lago. It was raised again by Henry Kissinger, now in the pay of the Chinese government, at his meeting with President Trump on May 10.

It has been said that President Xi wants the Fourth Communique to crown his consolidation of power at the national congress of Communist Party of China in autumn this year. But he is likely indifferent. If the U.S. could be talked into abandoning the Western Pacific and all its allies in Asia, that would be a bonus. It is more likely that he is making a casus belli for the war that he wants and thus head off intra-party criticism for military adventurism with its attendant horrors. China expects to win a short, sharp, glorious war.

China, the U.S., Japan and Vietnam are all expecting war. China may have claimed all of the South China Sea but Vietnam still has 17 island bases there. These are a major long-term embarrassment to China. Vietnam will not give them up voluntarily so China will attempt to remove them by force – thus the current buildup of China’s amphibious warfare capability. China would also attack Vietnam along their land border to put maximum pressure on Hanoi.

Satellite imagery suggests preparations are being made to that end. For example at 22° 24’ N, 106° 42’ E, there are 12 large warehouses across the road from an army base that is six miles from the border with Vietnam. We can tell it’s an army base because it has a running track. China’s three major bases in the South China Sea and all have running tracks and 24 hardened shelters for fighter aircraft. The warehouses have red roofs when almost all the industrial buildings in the region have blue roofs, suggesting a central directive for their construction. The purpose of the warehouses would be to hide an armored force buildup prior to the invasion of Vietnam.

Warehouses at 22° 24’ N, 106° 42’ E, image date 8/25/2016

Along parts of the China-Vietnam border, there are areas with an abundance of roads leading up to the border and ending in pads suitable for artillery. These likely preparations give us an indication of what China’s war plans for Vietnam might include, just as the ten-pad, expeditionary helicopter base in the Nanji Islands at 27° 27’ N, 121° 4’ E provides China with an option to attack Japan in the Senkaku Islands.

Just because China hasn’t been involved in many wars in the last 60 years doesn’t mean that it is not belligerent. A case in point is the attacks China mounted on Vietnam from 1980 to 1990 seemingly just for the sake of it, after the 1979 China-Vietnam war. China’s then-leader, Deng Xiaoping, rotated army units through the front to give them combat experience. It didn’t matter that they were killing Vietnamese to do so. During the five-year period from 1984 to 1989, the Chinese fired over two million artillery rounds into Ha Giang Province, mainly into an eight-square-mile area. Chinese antipathy for its neighbors is essentially racist – if everyone else is a barbarian, their deaths will be of little consequence.

The Chinese dream of hegemony in Asia has been a long time coming. The map following is from a Nationalist primary school textbook from 1938:

A bit like Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, it has China extending as far south as Singapore. China’s ambitions now include incorporation of the Philippines. 

China is now back to seeking hegemony of the Asia-Pacific region and so that voids the Second Communique. Fortunately President Trump’s advisers, recognizing the reality of the situation, have suggested that all three communiques be scrapped.

The question from here is the timing of China’s war. China’s bases in the Spratly Islands are now essentially complete. All they have to do from here is fly in the fighter aircraft. It is thought that China’s strategic petroleum reserve is near full after its stockpiling rate fell from the peak in March 2017 at 1.6 million barrels per day. Another sign that war is approaching and not receding is that the rate of Chinese incursions into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands:

 

The big increase in mid-2012 was due to the ascension of President Xi.  After trending down for two years, the rate of incursions is now trending up. The Chinese government pays their fishing fleet to do this. Now, would any civilized country expecting to live in everlasting peace with its neighbors do this? None would, and so the Chinese are telling us that war is coming. Prepare accordingly.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.

 

 

 

There are currently three communiques that have guided U.S.-China relations for the last 45 years. These joint statements by the U.S. and Chinese governments were signed in 1972, 1979, and 1982. Among other things, the second communique states that, “Neither should seek hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region or in any other region of the world”. 

China has recently been attempting to have the U.S. sign onto a Fourth Communique under which the U.S. would no longer consider Taiwan as an ally or deal with it in any military or diplomatic terms. In effect, the U.S. would peacefully decline and leave the Western Pacific to China. The White House rejected it prior to the meeting of the U.S. and Chinese presidents on April 6-7 at Mar-a-Lago. It was raised again by Henry Kissinger, now in the pay of the Chinese government, at his meeting with President Trump on May 10.

It has been said that President Xi wants the Fourth Communique to crown his consolidation of power at the national congress of Communist Party of China in autumn this year. But he is likely indifferent. If the U.S. could be talked into abandoning the Western Pacific and all its allies in Asia, that would be a bonus. It is more likely that he is making a casus belli for the war that he wants and thus head off intra-party criticism for military adventurism with its attendant horrors. China expects to win a short, sharp, glorious war.

China, the U.S., Japan and Vietnam are all expecting war. China may have claimed all of the South China Sea but Vietnam still has 17 island bases there. These are a major long-term embarrassment to China. Vietnam will not give them up voluntarily so China will attempt to remove them by force – thus the current buildup of China’s amphibious warfare capability. China would also attack Vietnam along their land border to put maximum pressure on Hanoi.

Satellite imagery suggests preparations are being made to that end. For example at 22° 24’ N, 106° 42’ E, there are 12 large warehouses across the road from an army base that is six miles from the border with Vietnam. We can tell it’s an army base because it has a running track. China’s three major bases in the South China Sea and all have running tracks and 24 hardened shelters for fighter aircraft. The warehouses have red roofs when almost all the industrial buildings in the region have blue roofs, suggesting a central directive for their construction. The purpose of the warehouses would be to hide an armored force buildup prior to the invasion of Vietnam.

Warehouses at 22° 24’ N, 106° 42’ E, image date 8/25/2016

Along parts of the China-Vietnam border, there are areas with an abundance of roads leading up to the border and ending in pads suitable for artillery. These likely preparations give us an indication of what China’s war plans for Vietnam might include, just as the ten-pad, expeditionary helicopter base in the Nanji Islands at 27° 27’ N, 121° 4’ E provides China with an option to attack Japan in the Senkaku Islands.

Just because China hasn’t been involved in many wars in the last 60 years doesn’t mean that it is not belligerent. A case in point is the attacks China mounted on Vietnam from 1980 to 1990 seemingly just for the sake of it, after the 1979 China-Vietnam war. China’s then-leader, Deng Xiaoping, rotated army units through the front to give them combat experience. It didn’t matter that they were killing Vietnamese to do so. During the five-year period from 1984 to 1989, the Chinese fired over two million artillery rounds into Ha Giang Province, mainly into an eight-square-mile area. Chinese antipathy for its neighbors is essentially racist – if everyone else is a barbarian, their deaths will be of little consequence.

The Chinese dream of hegemony in Asia has been a long time coming. The map following is from a Nationalist primary school textbook from 1938:

A bit like Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, it has China extending as far south as Singapore. China’s ambitions now include incorporation of the Philippines. 

China is now back to seeking hegemony of the Asia-Pacific region and so that voids the Second Communique. Fortunately President Trump’s advisers, recognizing the reality of the situation, have suggested that all three communiques be scrapped.

The question from here is the timing of China’s war. China’s bases in the Spratly Islands are now essentially complete. All they have to do from here is fly in the fighter aircraft. It is thought that China’s strategic petroleum reserve is near full after its stockpiling rate fell from the peak in March 2017 at 1.6 million barrels per day. Another sign that war is approaching and not receding is that the rate of Chinese incursions into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands:

 

The big increase in mid-2012 was due to the ascension of President Xi.  After trending down for two years, the rate of incursions is now trending up. The Chinese government pays their fishing fleet to do this. Now, would any civilized country expecting to live in everlasting peace with its neighbors do this? None would, and so the Chinese are telling us that war is coming. Prepare accordingly.

David Archibald is the author of American Gripen: The Solution to the F-35 Nightmare.

 

 

 



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