Every day, a brand-new new poll emerges in the 2016 presidential race. In fact, on most days, it seems like multiple polls are released.

How is it possible, many people want to know, that polls asking the same questions and taken during the same time yield different results? The answer to that question is both complex and simple.

First, polls are based on random-sampling respondents. Those respondents are then “weighted” by a given pollster to mirror the electorate as a whole. For example, if 1,000 people participate in a poll, the pollster adjusts the actual results to reflect the assumed percentages of men voters and women voters, older voters and younger voters, Republican voters and Democratic voters that will actually vote on Election Day.

Not surprisingly, the smaller the number of respondents in a given survey, the harder that poll is to accurately weigh. But the mathematics here is not the root problem. The difficult question every pollster has to answer is: Who will actually turn out to vote on Election Day?

Some of these current polls simply assume that the voting population on Election Day 2016 will be almost identical to the 2012 electorate.

Chuck Todd at NBC recently deconstructed a CNN poll by using the weighting from the 2012 presidential electorate. Chuck’s experiment showed a massive change in the final results of the poll. The original CNN poll had Trump winning by 2 points. The dismantled and reconfigured poll had Clinton winning by 4 points.

This experiment is a very clear example of the importance of carefully and accurately weighting a poll in order for it to have any information value to voters. MSNBC viewers may have came away with the impression that the experiment was proof the CNN poll was in error. I would argue that instead the experiment proves the error of Static Electorate Theory.

It’s almost axiomatic to say that the 2016 electorate will be different than the voters of 2012. Different groups of people are angry, energized, disgusted, and apathetic.

And we already know for a fact that over the last 4 years, there have been massive shifts in voter registration numbers in certain key states. Almost everyone agrees that four critical states this November will be Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

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What many people do not know is that these four states have 750,000 fewer registered Democrats now than four years ago. These same four states also have 200,000 more registered Republican voters than in 2012. These shifts, in key states, could have a profound impact.

Meanwhile, the mainstream media have has written quite a bit about the growth in the Hispanic population. In fact, there is so much written about it you couldn’t read it all.

Since the election in 2000 when George W. Bush narrowly beat Al Gore, our country has changed a great deal. Nearly 30,000,000 senior citizens have died since that election. What does it mean to the American population as a whole? Don’t all seniors vote the same way?

It is a little remembered fact that senior citizens were a very strong voting base for the Democrats for about 70 years, from the time of FDR’s New Deal through the Clinton White House. Al Gore won seniors by four points in 2000.

In fact, seniors only started voting Republican in 2010. Mind you, there was no sudden change of mind for seniors. The change was the result of the long, steady demise of “New Deal Democrats.”

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Six years later, we are seeing the same shift continue today. It is almost impossible to overstate the effect of both the Great Depression and the New Deal on our politics. The Democratic Party benefited for decades from loyal folks who consistently supported the party they felt rescued the nation from economic collapse. Unfortunately for Democrats, there are not many of these voters left. Those New Dealers were white, middle class and mostly moderate.

In 2000, Al Gore won 42 perent of white voters. In 2012, President Obama won 39 percent of white voters. The latest CNN Poll has Hillary Clinton capturing only 34 percent of white voters. That’s a powerful and consistent trend line.

In 2000, white voters made up 81 percent of the electorate. This year, estimates are about 75 percent of all voters will be white.

The demise of the New Deal Democrats has resulted in white voters becoming more Republican than ever before. The CNN Poll showed 67 percent of white voters had an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. If you think that’s scary, how about the fact that 70 percent of white voters believe she isn’t “trustworthy.”

The same survey said Trump was winning senior citizens by 15 percentage points, 52-37. Those kinds of numbers were not thought possible six years ago.

The make-up of this year’s presidential electorate is changing. Ignoring those changes will make for lots of surprised voters on Election Day.

Barry Bennett is a Republican Political Consultant and CEO of Synovation Solutions. This cycle he Managed Dr. Ben Carson’s Campaign and served as a Senior Advisor to Donald Trump’s Campaign. Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions.

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