Before the Nov. 8 election, the Trafalgar group was a little-known Republican outfit whose polls were laughed off because the results looked wacky. Of all things, they had Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Well, people aren’t laughing any more, obviously. And they’ll likely take the group’s poll of the last election in 2016 pretty seriously. The results don’t look that out of the ordinary anyway this time.

On Saturday, voters in Louisiana will choose a U.S. senator and two U.S. House members in runoff elections. One of the House races is between two Republicans, so partisan control is only up for grabs in two of the three.

Trafalgar has Republican John Kennedy leading Democrat Foster Campbell in the Senate race, 56 to 40 percent. This is very much in line with the conventional wisdom.

In the partisan House race in the Fourth District in the state’s northwest corner, Republican state Rep. Mike Johnson leads Democrat Marshall Jones by a much wider margin, 67 to 30 percent.

The most interesting result might prove to be the race between two Republicans in southwest Louisiana. Former police captain Clay Higgins, who became a minor celebrity with crime videos he made as public relations officer for the St. Landry Parish Sheriff, holds an increasingly narrow lead over Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle. What earlier polling had shown to be a large lead for Higgins is now down to three points — 49 to 46 percent.

“Higgins holds a double digit lead among registered Republicans and independents, while Angelle leads Higgins among registered Democrats by more than 25 percent,” reads the statement released by Trafalgar Group Chief Strategist Robert Cahaly. “The universe of Trump style voters remain squarely in Higgins’ camp, but frustrated establishment and non-Trump Democrats and Republicans have aligned behind Angelle.” A big question is whether Trump voters are going to show up again Saturday.

In any case, as Nate Silver has noted, this runoff election “probably isn’t going to make Democrats feel better.” Every expectation is that Republicans will pick up their 52nd Senate seat and their 241st House seat, settling this year’s congressional elections for good.

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