Tonight has 10 competitive Senate races (if you consider Rob Portman safe). One of those is a Democratic seat (Harry Reid’s vacant seat). Nine are Republican seats. Republicans currently have a 54-46 majority in the Senate. So if you take those 10 competitive seats away, it’s 45-45.

Here are the ten races, in likelihood of going Republican, in my opinion.

  1. John McCain (Ariz.)
  2. Roy Blunt (Mo.)
  3. Indiana open seat
  4. Richard Burr (N.C.)
  5. Marco Rubio (Fla.)
  6. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.)
  7. Pat Toomey (Penn.)
  8. Ron Johnson (Wis.)
  9. Nevada open seat
  10. Mark Kirk (Ill.)

If my ranking is correct, then Ayotte, Rubio, and Toomey are the three to watch. If Republicans win two of those, they’ll hold the Senate majority with 51 seats.

Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on

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