Bad news for Donald Trump: His lead in Texas is below 5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. It joins the other seven states where the RCP average is within 5 points, which appears to be RCP’s definition of a “toss-up” state.

That’s right, they’re calling Texas, which Republicans have won by double-digits in seven of the last nine elections, a toss-up state.

A headline in the New York Times says “Could Hillary Clinton Win Texas? Some Democrats Say Maybe,” which is about as useful as a headline that says, “Could the Chicago Cubs win the World Series? Some Cubs fans say maybe.” Still, it does say something that both situations seemed impossible for so many years but now seem plausible.

But not all “toss-up” states are created equal. Compare Texas with Iowa. In Iowa, Trump has a 3.7 point lead in the RCP average. Election forecasters go beyond a polling average by weighting different polls according to their quality, using information from betting markets or simply relying on on-the-ground reporting to help inform their forecasts. In addition to RealClearPolitics, nine major forecasters all say Iowa is a toss-up, ranging anywhere from a 62 percent chance of a Clinton win to a 65 percent chance of a Trump win.

That’s not the same case with Texas. As of 10 a.m. Tuesday morning, no one gives Trump less than an 80 percent chance of winning Texas. Across all the various methods of election forecasting, it’s very clear Texas isn’t just leaning toward Trump, it’s a likely Trump victory. That’s why Texas remains a likely-Trump state in this week’s state of the presidential race.

To be sure, it’s a bad sign for Trump that he leads by only 5 points in Texas. If he’s having trouble there, it means he’s having trouble or downright losing in a lot of states he must do better in.

In must-win Florida, Trump’s chances haven’t improved: It still leans toward Clinton. Nevada isn’t a must-win state, but if Trump were doing well there it would probably mean Arizona were solidly in his favor and Pennsylvania might be back in play. Instead, Nevada leans Clinton and is on the edge of moving into likely-Clinton territory. Iowa would help Trump, but due to what the forecasters say above, it’s a true toss-up at this point.

Arizona, like Texas, is a fairly reliable red state that has surprised some people as a toss-up. Unlike Texas, Arizona is a true toss-up. In the RCP average, Clinton is ahead by 1.3 points. Forecasters are still favorable to Trump, though, projecting anywhere from a 46 to 74 percent chance he’ll win there.

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Utah is another legitimate toss-up state that used to be reliably red. It’s voted for Republicans by huge margins in every election since Nixon won there in 1968. Now independent candidate Evan McMullin, a conservative, has thrown a wrench into things: He’s competitive with Trump and often outpolls Clinton. It probably won’t affect the overall victor, but it will be interesting to watch Utah’s returns to see if McMullin can pull it off.

Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.

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